By Gordon Arthur

作者：戈登·亚瑟

Jun 24, 2024

2024年6月24日

 

(Art illustration/Getty Images)

（艺术插图/盖蒂图片社）

 

 

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — Despite China’s notorious secrecy surrounding all things defense, there are indications it is making progress on a sixth-generation fighter.

新西兰基督城——尽管中国在所有防御方面都有着声名不佳的保密性，但有迹象表明，中国在第六代战斗机方面正在取得进展。

 

Perhaps the clearest admission came from a WeChat social media post by Aviation Industry Corporation of China in January 2019. In an interview discussing sixth-gen fighters, Wang Haifeng, the chief designer at AVIC subsidiary Chengdu Aerospace Corp., said preparations were underway to research a combat aircraft that would be ready to “protect the sea and sky” by 2035.

也许最明确的承认来自中国航空工业集团公司2019年1月在微信社交媒体上发布的一条帖子。在一次讨论第六代战斗机的采访中，中航工业子公司成都航空航天总公司的总设计师王海峰表示，正在准备研究一种作战飞机，该飞机将在2035年前“保护海洋和天空”。

 

At the time, Wang mentioned elements like manned-unmanned teaming, the use of artificial intelligence, as well as improved stealth and omnidirectional sensors.

当时，王提到了载人-无人团队合作、人工智能的使用，以及改进的隐形技术和全向传感器等元素。

 

In 2022, the head of U.S. Air Combat Command said those efforts are “on track.”

2022年，美国空战司令部司令表示，这些努力正在“步入正轨”

 

“By and large, they see it [sixth-gen fighter technology] greatly the way we see it in terms of an exponential reduction in signature and exponential acceleration in processing power and sensing, and the ability to iterate in terms of open-mission systems, to be able to essentially reprogram at the speed of relevance,” Gen. Mark Kelly said.

马克·凯利将军说：“总的来说，他们对它（第六代战斗机技术）的看法与我们对它的看法非常相似，即信号的指数级减少、处理能力和传感的指数级加速，以及在开放任务系统方面的迭代能力，基本上能够以相关的速度重新编程。”。

 

Fast forward to the present, and Rick Joe, who has written extensively about the Chinese military, considers the sixth-gen efforts a program of record, noting that “indicators since 2019 in the semiofficial space have only increased.” Examples include AVIC artwork depicting generic next-gen fighter configurations, academic papers, and statements from military and industry officials. In addition, satellite imagery of a tailless fighter-like airframe was seen at Chengdu Aerospace facilities in October 2021.

快进到现在，写了大量关于中国军队的文章的里克·乔认为第六代努力是一个有记录的计划，他指出“自2019年以来，半官方领域的指标只增不减。”例子包括描绘通用下一代战斗机配置的中航工业艺术品、学术论文以及军方和行业官员的声明。此外，2021年10月，在成都航天设施看到了一架无尾战斗机式机身的卫星图像。

 

Joe told Defense News that demonstrator testbeds, possibly subscale versions, have already flown.

乔告诉《防务新闻》，演示试验台，可能是小型试验台，已经起飞。

 

For lack of an official name, he referred to the mysterious fighter as the J-XD. “I fully expect the J-XD to have some subsystems (like engines), which will be less capable than a U.S. equivalent initially, simply because there are some domains where they are still catching up, albeit with significant closing of gaps over the past few decades.”

由于没有官方名称，他将这种神秘的战斗机称为J-XD。“我完全预计J-XD会有一些子系统（如发动机），最初的能力会低于美国的同类系统，只是因为在一些领域，它们仍在迎头赶上，尽管在过去几十年中差距显著缩小。”

 

Joe noted that sixth-gen fighters are typically expected to include aerodynamic design and control; radiofrequency materials; flight control software; sensing technologies; data-linking and combat-management systems; weapons; and the integration of collaborative combat aircraft, or complementary drones.

乔指出，第六代战斗机通常预计将包括空气动力学设计和控制；射频材料；飞行控制软件；传感技术；数据链接和作战管理系统；武器；以及协同作战飞机或互补无人机的集成。

 

“I see them as playing in the general ballpark of other nations pursuing a sixth-gen capability,” Joe said.

乔说：“我认为他们就像其他国家一样，在追求第六代的能力。”

 

But when Defense News asked Brendan Mulvaney, the director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, whether China currently has the capability to develop these advanced fighters, the response was slightly less optimistic for Beijing.

但当《防务新闻》询问美国空军中国航空航天研究所所长布伦丹·马尔瓦尼，中国目前是否有能力开发这些先进战斗机时，北京方面的反应略不乐观。

 

“Today? No. Twenty years from now? Absolutely. And we’ve seen this time and time again. We’re getting better at not ... underestimating what the Chinese system is capable of when it sets its mind to it,” Mulvaney said.

马尔瓦尼说：“今天？不。二十年后？当然。我们已经一次又一次地看到了这一点。我们越来越善于不……低估中国系统在下定决心时的能力。”

 

The official said mastering jet engines has been China’s bane, but it is getting better. “At the end of the day, that’s just science. I tell people that physics works the same in Berlin as it does in Beijing. So if you put enough time and effort ... you can make a good aerospace engine, especially for the military side.”

这位官员说，掌握喷气发动机一直是中国的根本上的缺陷，但情况正在好转。“归根结底，这只是科学。我告诉人们，物理学在柏林和在北京的工作原理是一样的。所以，如果你投入足够的时间和精力……你可以制造出一个好的航空发动机，尤其是对军事方面。”

 

Working with drones

使用无人机

 

Mulvaney said China has described its future fighter as unmanned, but he believes the design is more likely optionally manned, as it depends on how quickly industry can develop AI systems, alongside other requisite technologies. “You don’t have to have a man [in it] and you potentially let it go off on its own, or it could serve as a loyal wingman.”

马尔瓦尼说，中国已经将其未来的战斗机描述为无人驾驶，但他认为这种设计更有可能是选择性的有人驾驶，因为这取决于工业界开发人工智能系统以及其他必要技术的速度。“你不必有一个人（在里面），你可能会让它自己飞，或者它可以充当一个忠诚的僚机。”

 

China’s drone manufacturers are ambitious, but it’s not entirely clear where that technology stands in terms of complementing a future sixth-gen fighter. Notably, Joe said, Chinese-made combat drones and collaborative combat aircraft that have appeared at air shows are “likely not representative of actual in-development [unmanned combat aerial vehicles] intended for the [People’s Liberation Army], which are almost certainly more ambitious in scope.”

中国的无人机制造商雄心勃勃，但目前还不完全清楚这项技术在补充未来第六代战斗机方面的地位。值得注意的是，乔说，出现在的航展上的国产战斗无人机和合作战斗机“很可能不能代表为[人民解放军]设计的实际正在开发的[无人机]，几乎可以肯定，它们在范围上更雄心勃勃。”

 

The stealthy GJ-11 combat drone was unveiled at a military parade in Beijing, China, in 2019. (Gordon Arthur/Staff)

隐形GJ-11战斗无人机于2019年在中国北京的阅兵式上亮相。

 

He also said it’s fair to assume various sophisticated combat drones “are in advanced development/testing or even limited trial service.”

他还表示，可以认为各种复杂的战斗无人机“处于先进开发/测试阶段，甚至有限的试验服务”。

 

An in terms of trialing manned-unmanned teaming, China’s existing J-20 fighter could contribute, as the country developed a twin-seat version where a backseat operator can control drones. However, this variant is currently a technology demonstrator.

在载人-无人联合作战试验方面，中国现有的J-20战斗机可能会做出贡献，因为中国开发了一种双座版本，后座操作员可以控制无人机。然而，这种改型目前是一个技术演示器。

 

If the Chengdu Aerospace chief designer’s predictions of a sixth-gen fighter being operational in 2035 hold true, Joe said a maiden flight would need to take place at least five years before then, and thus a prototype would need to be ready around 2028. He expressed confidence this is possible, although Mulvaney predicted it will probably take China “until the late 2030s, if not the early 2040s,” to reveal a meaningful design.

如果成都航空航天总设计师关于第六代战斗机将于2035年投入使用的预测成立，乔表示，至少需要在五年前进行首飞，因此原型需要在2028年左右准备就绪。他表示相信这是可能的，尽管马尔瓦尼预测，中国可能需要“直到2030年末，如果不是2040年初”才能披露出一个有意义的设计。

 

About Gordon Arthur

关于戈登·亚瑟

 

Gordon Arthur is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. After a 20-year stint working in Hong Kong, he now resides in New Zealand. He has attended military exercises and defense exhibitions in about 20 countries around the Asia-Pacific region.

戈登·亚瑟是美国国防新闻频道的亚洲记者。在香港工作了20年后，他现在居住在新西兰。他参加了在亚太地区大约20个国家举行的军事演习和国防展览。