From breaking Russia's advances in the Donbas to capturing US attention ahead of the election, what is motivating the Ukrainian incursion?

从破坏俄罗斯在顿巴斯的进展到在选举前吸引美国的注意力，乌克兰入侵的动机是什么？

 

John Hill

August 12, 2024

约翰·希尔

2024年8月12日

 

Ukrainian forces ride a military vehicle in the Sumy region near the Ukraine-Russia border, 11 August 2024. Credit: Reuters.

2024年8月11日，乌克兰军队在乌克兰-俄罗斯边境附近的苏梅地区乘坐一辆军用车辆。来源：路透社。

 

Ukraine’s forces have surprised us all with its recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast since the operation to turn the tide of the war, after several demoralising months on the defensive, began in earnest on 6 August 2024.

乌克兰军队最近入侵俄罗斯库尔斯克州，这让我们所有人都感到惊讶，因为2024年8月6日，在经历了几个月令人沮丧的防御后，扭转战争局势的行动正式开始。

 

So far Ukrainian units have penetrated as deep as 30 kilometres (nearly 20 miles) in some directions, encompassing up to 400 square kilometres – though, control of the territory is questionable at this time. In their path, Ukraine’s forces – comprising four brigades, possibly more – have encompassed several villages and most of the town of Sudzha, where there is a gas transit point.

到目前为止，乌克兰部队在某些方向上已经渗透了30公里（近20英里）深，覆盖了多达400平方公里的地区——尽管目前对该地区的控制是有问题的。在他们的道路上，乌克兰的部队——由四个旅组成，可能还有更多旅——已经包围了几个村庄和苏扎镇的大部分地区，那里有一个天然气中转站。

 

The latest to come out of events in the region indicates that Russia is responding, but not considerably, as the fate of the operation continues to hang in the balance.

该地区最近发生的事件表明，俄罗斯正在做出反应，但反应并不明显，因为行动的命运仍然悬而未决。

 

Matthew Savill, the Military Sciences director at the British security think tank, the Royal United Services Institute, tells us that “over the weekend it seems like more Russian forces, including some pulled from inside Ukraine, have started arriving and may have now halted further Ukrainian advances, but it has not been a particularly impressive response yet.”

英国安全智库皇家联合军种研究所军事科学主任马修·萨维尔告诉我们，“周末，似乎更多的俄罗斯部队，包括一些从乌克兰境内撤出的部队，已经开始抵达，现在可能已经阻止了乌克兰的进一步推进，但这还不是一个特别令人印象深刻的反应。”

 

“The Russians have been severely embarrassed”

“俄罗斯人非常尴尬”

 

“The Russians have been severely embarrassed and the loss of territory and evacuation of civilians will play poorly back in Russia as evidence they ‘can’t defend themselves’ (especially alongside continued Ukrainian drone attacks as deep strikes).”

“俄罗斯人已经非常尴尬，领土的丧失和平民的撤离将在俄罗斯产生不利影响，因为这证明他们‘无法自卫’（尤其是在乌克兰无人机持续袭击作为深度打击的情况下）。”

 

It is believed that as many as 75,000 Russian civilians have fled the region in the wake of the surprise raid. While giving no hint to either the size or strategy of its military response, comments from within the Russian Ministry of Defence only refer to its claims to “support the residents” with temporary accommodation as well as payments to those who had to leave their homes.

据信，在突袭之后，多达75000名俄罗斯平民逃离了该地区。虽然没有暗示其军事反应的规模或战略，但俄罗斯国防部内部的评论只提到其声称通过临时住宿“支持居民”以及向不得不离开家园的人支付款项。

 

Some reporting over the weekend highlighted effective use of electronic warfare (EW) to break through or jam Russian surveillance, though it should be noted that the details are yet to be confirmed.

周末的一些报道强调了有效使用电子战（EW）来突破或干扰俄罗斯的监视，但应该指出的是，细节尚未得到证实。

 

Andriy Dovbenko, principal and founder of UK-Ukraine TechExchange – a non-profit start-up support programme specialising in defence and agricultural technology – offered his insight:

安德里·多夫芬科是英国-乌克兰技术交易所的负责人和创始人，该交易所是一个专门从事国防和农业技术的非营利性初创支持项目，他提供了自己的见解：

 

“Ukraine’s incursion is a testament to the nation’s resilience and military strength. It was enabled by the country’s innovation in the use of EW and drones. This latest Ukrainian offensive shows that our fighting spirit is alive and well, as are the necessary technological advancements that will help bring us one step closer to ending this war.”

“乌克兰的入侵证明了该国的韧性和军事实力。这得益于该国在使用电子战和无人机方面的创新。乌克兰最近的这次进攻表明，我们的战斗精神仍然充满活力，必要的技术进步也将有助于我们更接近结束这场战争。”

 

Ukraine’s land grab adds to mounting strife inside Russia following the rebellion of the state-backed mercenary group, Wagner, in July 2023, in which the group’s late leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led units in a march on Moscow. This was quickly stopped in its tracks by careful diplomacy involving mediation from Russia’s neighbour and satellite, Belarus.

2023年7月，俄罗斯国家支持的雇佣军组织瓦格纳叛乱，该组织已故领导人叶夫根尼·普里戈津率领部队向莫斯科进军，乌克兰的土地掠夺加剧了俄罗斯国内日益加剧的冲突。通过俄罗斯的邻国和卫星国白俄罗斯的斡旋，这一进程很快被谨慎的外交所阻止。

 

Military value

军事价值

 

It is still difficult to know what Ukraine’s military objectives are in the context of the war itself. However, it is certain that this incursion is unsustainable. It will prove to be a major logistical challenge to control this Russian territory.

在战争本身的背景下，仍然很难知道乌克兰的军事目标是什么。然而，可以肯定的是，这种入侵是不可持续的。事实证明，控制这片俄罗斯领土将是一项重大的后勤挑战。

 

Nontheless, this reality does not diminish the fact that, with a goal in mind, Ukraine may be able to extort the Putin regime in the near-term.

尽管如此，这一现实并没有削弱这样一个事实，即考虑到目标，乌克兰可能在短期内能够勒索普京政权。

 

“Sustaining a force of any size in Russia, and defending against counter-attacks, will be hard, given the limited reserves available to Ukraine,” noted Savill.

萨维尔指出：“鉴于乌克兰可用的储备有限，在俄罗斯维持任何规模的部队并防御反击都将是困难的。”

 

“Neither has it – thus far – resulted in the Russians slowing their advances around the Donbas [in Eastern Ukraine], where the situations around Chasiv Yar and towards Povrovsk remain difficult.”

“到目前为止，这也没有导致俄罗斯人减缓他们在顿巴斯（乌克兰东部）周围的前进，那里查西夫亚尔周围和波夫洛夫斯克的局势仍然困难。”

 

On the other hand, it is telling that Russia – which is slowly pushing westward in the Ukrianian theatre largely due to sheer mass – is not mobilising a considerable enough force to meet enemy presence in its territory.

另一方面，这说明俄罗斯——主要是由于庞大的规模，俄罗斯正在乌克兰战区缓慢向西推进——没有动员足够多的力量来应对其领土上的敌人。

 

Walker adds that “this incursion is not going to be easily or quickly repelled by Russia either. Ukraine has likely been thinking about this scenario for a long time and hopefully has a plan to maintain this momentum. Meanwhile, Russia is forced to respond to this incursion and will have to relocate troops to handle the situation.”

沃克补充说，“俄罗斯也不会轻易或迅速击退这次入侵。乌克兰可能已经考虑了这种情况很长时间，希望有计划保持这种势头。与此同时，俄罗斯被迫对这次入侵作出回应，并将不得不重新部署部队来应对这种情况。”

 

Political value

政治价值

 

There is added value politically too as Ukraine proves its ability to find alternate ways to break the slow and unrelenting Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine.

随着乌克兰证明其有能力找到其他方法来打破俄罗斯在乌克兰东部缓慢而无情的进展，这在政治上也有附加值。

 

Over the last year-and-a-half, what was once a deadlock soon turned against Ukraine, which shook Western resolve in backing the receding nation.

在过去的一年半里，一度陷入僵局的局面很快对乌克兰不利，动摇了西方支持这个正在衰落的国家的决心。

 

It is noteworthy that the Ukrainians achieved something close to surprise in contrast with their counter-offensive last year, which was compromised both by leaks amongst international partners and Russian intelligence penetration of the Ukrainian system.

值得注意的是，与去年的反攻相比，乌克兰人取得了近乎令人惊讶的成就，去年的反攻因国际伙伴之间的泄密和俄罗斯情报部门对乌克兰系统的渗透而受到损害。

 

No doubt Ukraine hopes that the incursion will reverberate in the US, ahead of the 5 November election, as the former President Donald Trump runs again on a rampantly isolationist platform, and whose comments on European defence have recently reinforced this position.

毫无疑问，乌克兰希望在11月5日大选之前，入侵将在美国产生反响，因为前总统唐纳德·特朗普再次以狂妄的孤立主义纲领竞选，而他最近对欧洲防务的评论加强了这一立场。

 

“While the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative about being on the defensive, it seems unlikely they would want to sustain a large incursion for months,” Savill adds. “They will have a decision to make about the best time to trade in the ground they have captured, and to what end.”

萨维尔补充道：“虽然乌克兰人已经扭转了公众关于处于守势的说法，但他们似乎不太可能在几个月内持续大规模入侵。”。“他们将决定在他们占领的土地上进行交易的最佳时机，以及交易的目的。”