26 Aug, 2024

Analysis Defense and Security Industry

2024年8月26日

国防安全行业分析

 

China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, at Jiangnan Shipyard on June 17,2022   (Picture source: i Tang/VCGL)

2022年6月17日，中国第三艘航空母舰“福建”号在江南造船厂（图片来源：i Tang/VCGL）

 

Since the end of World War II, the United States has been the largest military power in the Indo-Pacific region. However, China's rapid military growth in this area is tipping the balance in favor of regional power. Too often, Chinese and American military power is compared on a global scale, where the U.S. military, equipped and trained to project its power globally, has a clear advantage. But the military balance in Asia is becoming less clear. China has increasingly demonstrated its ability to develop large-scale modern military capabilities and to project this power regionally.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，美国一直是印太地区最大的军事强国。然而，中国在这一领域的快速军事增长正在使平衡向地区力量倾斜。中国和美国的军事力量经常在全球范围内进行比较，美国军队装备精良，训练有素，能够在全球投射其力量，具有明显的优势。但亚洲的军事平衡正变得越来越不明确。中国越来越多地展示了其发展大规模现代军事能力并在地区范围内投射这种力量的能力。

 

These shifts should ring alarm bells in Washington. The latest version of the Pentagon's annual report to Congress on the Chinese military indicates that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is evolving its capabilities and concepts to enhance its ability to "fight and win wars" against the United States. The chairman of the House China Committee, Republican Representative John Moolenaar of Michigan, stated that China "has enough weapons to overwhelm our air and missile defenses" that protect American bases in the Pacific.

这些转变应该会给华盛顿敲响警钟。五角大楼向国会提交的中国军事年度报告的最新版本表明，中国人民解放军（PLA）正在发展其能力和概念，以增强其对美国“作战和赢得战争”的能力。众议院中国委员会主席，密歇根州共和党代表约翰·穆勒纳尔表示，中国“有足够的武器来摧毁我们的空中和导弹防御系统”，那么保护美国在太平洋的基地。

 

Extraordinary Military spendings:

特别军事开支：

 

A quick review of regional military spending helps better understand the evolution of the military balance in the Indo-Pacific region. Despite Beijing's announced $229 billion for 2022, new research suggests that China's actual military spending was around $711 billion, nearly equivalent to the U.S. defense budget for the same year.

快速回顾地区军费开支有助于更好地了解印度洋-太平洋地区军事平衡的演变。尽管北京宣布2022年的军费开支为2290亿美元，但新的研究表明，中国的实际军费开支约为7110亿美元。

 

Military expenditures comparable to those of the United States should already be a source of concern, but the advantage is even more pronounced when compared to China's direct neighbors in Asia.

与美国相当的军费开支应该已经引起人们的担忧，但与中国在亚洲的直接邻国相比，这种优势甚至更为明显。

 

With $711 billion, Beijing spends five times more than its main allies combined and three times more than the big spenders. These investments in combat power are manifested by the rapid growth in size and strength of the Chinese armed forces. In 2017, Xi Jinping stated his desire to transform the PLA into a "world-class army" by the end of 2049, and his investments appear to be bearing fruit.

北京的支出为7110亿美元，是其主要盟友总支出的五倍，是总支出的三倍。这些对战斗力的投资体现在中国武装力量的规模和实力的快速增长上。2017年，中国领导人表示，他希望在2049年底前将解放军转变为“世界级军队”，北京的投资似乎正在取得成果。

 

An Increasingly Numerous and Better-Equipped Army

一支数量越来越多、装备越来越好的军队

 

Today, China possesses the world's largest army, the largest navy, and the largest ground-based missile force. Beijing is also working hard to build a sophisticated arsenal of hypersonic missiles and to triple its nuclear arsenal by 2030.

如今，中国拥有世界上最大的陆军、最大的海军和最大的陆基导弹部队。北京也在努力建立一个先进的高超音速导弹库，并在2030年前将其核武库增加两倍。

 

In comparison, as China rapidly strengthens its military capabilities, the U.S. military is quickly shrinking across all services. In the current budget of President Biden, the army will be reduced to only 442,300 active-duty soldiers, the smallest force size since 1940. The U.S. Navy has halved its size from 40 years ago and is expected to continue shrinking to have only 294 ships by 2030. Meanwhile, the Chinese fleet is expected to reach 425 ships. Similarly, the U.S. Air Force is near its smallest size since the end of World War II, as the retirement of aging aircraft exceeds the purchase of new replacements. Meanwhile, China is rapidly modernizing its air force with locally produced aircraft, such as the J-20 stealth fighter developed from stolen American technologies.

相比之下，随着中国迅速加强其军事能力，美国军队在所有军种都在迅速萎缩。在拜登总统目前的预算中，陆军将减少到只有442300名现役士兵，这是自1940年以来最小的兵力。美国海军的规模比40年前减少了一半，预计到2030年将继续缩减，只有294艘舰艇。与此同时，中国舰队预计将达到425艘。同样，美国空军的规模接近二战结束以来的最小规模，因为老旧飞机的退役超过了购买新的替代品。与此同时，中国正在用国产飞机迅速实现空军现代化，比如用非法获取美国技术开发的歼-20隐形战斗机。

 

Furthermore, as a global power and to meet the needs of the national defense strategy, the U.S. military must balance priorities in the Indo-Pacific region with those elsewhere, such as deterring Iran, countering Russian aggression, and reinforcing allies' commitments. Therefore, only a fraction of American military power is in the Pacific at any given time. While the U.S. military overall surpasses the Chinese military, China has the luxury of focusing solely on its neighborhood with much more restricted goals, allowing its forces to get more for their money.

此外，作为一个全球大国，为了满足国防战略的需要，美国军方必须平衡印太地区与其他地区的优先事项，如威慑伊朗、打击俄罗斯侵略和加强盟友的承诺。因此，在任何时候，美国在太平洋的军事力量都只有一小部分。虽然美国军队总体上超过了中国军队，但中国有幸只关注其目标更为有限的邻国，使其军队能够用自己的资金获得更多。

 

Beijing knows this and feels that the balance is shifting, as evidenced by its increasingly bold attempts to use force against U.S. allies such as the Philippines, Japan, and Australia. While Washington has ostensibly shifted resources to Asia to counter Chinese aggression, this has been slow and uneven. Recent wars against our allies in Europe and the Middle East should remind Washington that moving forces while simultaneously reducing them results in powerless adversaries and violent compromises.

北京知道这一点，并认为这种平衡正在发生变化，正如它越来越大胆地试图对菲律宾、日本和澳大利亚等美国盟友使用武力震慑所证明的那样。虽然华盛顿表面上已将资源转移到亚洲以对抗中国的武力，但这进展缓慢且不平衡。最近针对美国在欧洲和中东盟友的战争应该提醒华盛顿，在减少部队的同时移动部队会导致弱化对手和暴力对抗中妥协。