法新社2023年7月13日

 

North Korea said Thursday it has successfully tested the Hwasong-18, its new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, for the second time.

朝鲜在星期四声称，它第二次成功地测试了新型固体燃料洲际弹道导弹“火星-18”。

 

The test on Wednesday unlocks a major breakthrough for North Korea’s banned weapons programmes, but what exactly is a solid-fuel missile and why does it matter that Pyongyang has one?

周三的试验为朝鲜被禁的武器计划开辟了一个重大突破，但到底什么是固体燃料导弹，为什么平壤有这种导弹很重要？

 

What is a solid-fuel missile?

什么是固体燃料导弹？

 

With this type of missile, the fuel that powers it is made of a solid chemical mixture.

对于这种类型的导弹，为其提供动力的燃料是由固体化学混合物制成的。

 

“This propellant is cast into the missile’s airframe when the missile is built: imagine a firecracker rocket, ready to go,” Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told AFP.

卡内基国际和平基金会的核政策专家安基特·潘达告诉法新社：“导弹制造时，这种推进剂会被铸造到导弹机身中：想象一下一枚爆竹火箭，随时可以发射。”。

 

In contrast, liquid-fueled missiles typically require that the fuel and an oxidiser be inserted into the missile before they can be fired — a slower and more cumbersome process.

相比之下，液体燃料导弹通常需要在发射前将燃料和氧化剂注入导弹中，这是一个更慢、更麻烦的过程。

 

Why is it better?

为什么它更好？

 

Preparing a liquid-fuel missile for launch “takes time just like pumping gasoline to your car”, said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute.

世宗研究所朝鲜研究中心主任张承昌说，准备液体燃料导弹“就像泵汽油一样需要时间”。

 

And once a liquid-fuel missile is prepared, he added, “it has to be fired within a short period of time.”

他补充道，一旦准备好液体燃料导弹，“就必须在短时间内发射。”

 

Solid-fuel missiles need to be stored, maintained and handled carefully and if this is not done, the quality of the missile can degrade over time, which could cause it to fail.

固体燃料导弹需要小心储存、维护和处理，如果不这样做，导弹的质量可能会随着时间的推移而下降，这可能会导致导弹失效。

 

They are generally quicker to deploy and have “an advantage in immediate launch”, Japan’s top government spokesman Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters, saying that this week’s test appeared to be of the same solid-fuel ICBM missile that North Korea fired in April.

日本政府高级发言人松野博和告诉记者，它们通常部署得更快，并且“在立即发射方面具有优势”。他表示，本周的试验似乎与朝鲜4月发射的固体燃料洲际弹道导弹相同。

 

Are North Korean solid-fuel ICBMs operational now?

朝鲜的固体燃料洲际弹道导弹现在可以运行了吗？

 

Images of both the April and July launches show the missile’s exhaust plume, which is consistent with a dirty, smoky solid propellant at work.

4月和7月发射的图像都显示了导弹的排气羽流，这与工作中的脏烟固体推进剂一致。

 

“The shape of flame is consistent with solid-fueled missiles — with the long white smoke coming out of the propellant seconds after liftoff being most demonstrative,” Han Kwon-hee of the Missile Strategy Forum told AFP.

导弹战略论坛的韩权熙告诉法新社：“火焰的形状与固体燃料导弹一致——发射几秒后的长白烟是最明显的”。

 

The launches look technically similar, he said, indicating the second test “was intended to verify and certify the accuracy and precision of the Hwasong-18”.

他说，两次发射在技术上看起来很相似，这表明第二次测试“旨在验证和证明火星-18的准确性和精度”。

 

North Korea’s main liquid-fueled ICBMs have been tested repeatedly — but only on a lofted trajectory, which is not how they would be used in a real-life situation. That leaves key questions about their performance.

朝鲜的主要液体燃料洲际弹道导弹已经被反复测试，但只是在一个上升的轨迹上，这不是它们在现实生活中使用的方式。这就留下了关于它们的性能的关键问题。

 

But as North Korea’s threshold for what is effectively fielded is likely different from others, the new weapon may be considered operational even if other militaries would require more testing.

但由于朝鲜有效部署武器的门槛可能与其他国家不同，即使其他国家的军队需要更多的测试，这种新武器也可能被认为是可操作的。

 

Who else has solid-fuel missiles?

还有谁拥有固体燃料导弹？

 

Most militaries first start off with liquid-fuel missile technology but soon strive to acquire solid-fuel missiles, which require more advanced technology.

大多数军队最初采用液体燃料导弹技术，但很快就会努力获得固体燃料导弹，这需要更先进的技术。

 

However, not all advanced militaries exclusively deploy solid-fuel missiles.

然而，并非所有先进的军队都只部署固体燃料导弹。

 

The United States deploys solid-fuel ICBMs and SLBMs, but Russia and China both still operate large liquid-fueled missiles, experts say.

专家表示，美国部署了固体燃料洲际弹道导弹和潜射弹道导弹，但俄罗斯和中国仍在使用大型液体燃料导弹。

 

South Korea, for its part, has the technical capacity for solid-fuel missiles, and even has some in its arsenal, “but their range is limited to cover the Korean peninsula”, Kim Jong-dae of the Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies told AFP.

延世朝鲜研究所的金钟大告诉法新社，就韩国而言，它拥有固体燃料导弹的技术能力，甚至在其武库中也有一些，“但它们的射程仅限于覆盖朝鲜半岛”。

 

Is this a game-changer?

这会改变游戏规则吗？

 

North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un claims the Hwasong-18 solid fuel ICBM will “radically promote” the country’s nuclear counterattack capabilities, and experts say it could indeed change the security situation on the peninsula.

朝鲜领导人金正恩声称，火星-18固体燃料洲际弹道导弹将“从根本上提升”该国的核反击能力，专家表示，它确实可能改变朝鲜半岛的安全局势。

 

South Korea’s self-defence plan relies in part on a so-called Kill Chain preemptive strike system, which allows Seoul to launch a preemptive attack if a North Korean attack is imminent.

韩国的自卫计划在一定程度上依赖于所谓的杀伤链先发制人打击系统，该系统允许首尔在朝鲜即将发动进攻时发动先发制人的打击。

 

The Hwasong-18 would be far harder to detect, which could upend this preemptive strike formula — although South Korea’s defence ministry has dismissed this fear as “excessive worry”.

“火星-18”将更难被探测到，这可能会颠覆这种先发制人的打击模式——尽管韩国国防部将这种担忧斥为“过度担忧”。

 

But if North Korea were to deploy solid-fuel ICBMs, it would “signal a game-changer in possible warfare with them”, the Yonsei Institute’s Kim told AFP.

但延世研究所的金钟大告诉法新社，如果朝鲜部署固体燃料洲际弹道导弹，这将“标志着可能与他们开战的游戏规则改变者”。

 

“The South’s existing plan in case of war with the North is to preemptively strike and destroy the North’s missile system after confirming signs of launch preparations,” he said.

他说：“韩国在与朝鲜发生战争时的现有计划是，在确认发射准备迹象后，先发制人地打击并摧毁朝鲜的导弹系统。”

 

“But there will be no such signs if the North Koreans prepare solid-fuel missiles aiming at the South.”

“但如果朝鲜准备好针对韩国的固体燃料导弹，就不会有这样的迹象。”