By Hans Kristensen • December 3, 2020

汉斯·克里斯滕森（Hans Kristensen）•2020年12月3日

 

The Trump administration has denied a request from the Federation of American Scientists to disclose the size of the US nuclear weapons stockpile and the number of dismantled warheads.

特朗普政府拒绝了美国科学家联合会（Federation of American Scientists）要求，要求披露美国核武器库存的规模和拆卸弹头的数量。

 

The denial was made by the Department of Defense Formerly Restricted Data Declassification Working Group (FDR DWG) in response to a petition from Steven Aftergood, director of the FAS Project on Government Secrecy, “that the Department of Energy (and the Department of Defense) authorize declassification of the size of the total U.S, nuclear stockpile and the number of weapons dismantled as of the end of fiscal year 2020.”

国防部以往限制数据解密工作组（FDR DWG）拒绝了该请求，是针对FAS政府保密项目主任史蒂芬·阿福特古德（Steven Aftergood）的请愿书，“能源部（和国防部） 授权对截至2020财政年度结束时的美国总规模，核储备和已拆除的武器数量进行解密。”

 

The decision to deny release of the data contradicts past US disclosure of such information, undercuts US criticism of secrecy in other nuclear-armed states, and weakens US ability to document its adherence to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As Aftergood explained in the petition letter:

拒绝公布数据的决定与美国以往对此类信息的披露相矛盾，削弱了美国对其他核武国家保密的批评，并削弱了美国证明其遵守《核不扩散条约》的能力。 正如阿福特古德在请愿书中解释的那样：

 

We believe that the reasons that led to the previous declassifications of stockpile information are still valid. The benefits of declassification are substantial while the detrimental consequences, if any, are insignificant.

我们认为，导致先前对库存信息进行解密的原因仍然有效。 解密的好处是巨大的，而有害的后果（如果有的话）则微不足道。

 

As the first nuclear weapons state, the United States should strive to set a global example for clarity and transparency in nuclear weapons policy by disclosing its current stockpile size. Ambiguity is not helpful to anyone in this context.

作为第一个核武器国家，美国应努力通过披露其目前的储存规模，为核武器政策的明确性和透明度树立全球榜样。 在这种情况下，模棱两可对任何人都没有帮助。

 

Far from diminishing security, a credible USG account of its stockpile size both enhances deterrence and serves as a confidence building measure. Even if other nations do not immediately follow our lead, stockpile declassification sends a valuable message. And at a time when the future of US nuclear weapons policy is under discussion in Congress and elsewhere, stockpile disclosure also helps to provide a factual foundation for ongoing public deliberation.

一个可靠的USG对其储存规模的描述非但没有削弱安全，反而增强了威慑力，并起到建立信任的作用。即使其他国家没有立即追随我们的步伐，库存的解密也能传达出宝贵的信息。在美国国会和其他地方正在讨论未来的核武器政策的时候，库存公开也有助于为正在进行的公众审议提供事实依据。

 

In its denial letter, the DOD Formerly Restricted Data Declassification Working Group (FDR DWG) did not respond to these points and gave no reason for the denial other than stating that “the information requested cannot be declassified at this time.”

国防部以往受限制数据解密工作组(FDRDWG)在其拒绝信中没有对这些问题作出答复，也没有给出拒绝的理由，只是说“所要求的信息目前无法解密。”

 

Stockpile Size and Developments

库存规模和发展

 

The decision to deny declassification of the warhead stockpile and dismantlement numbers contradicts the publication of such data between 2010 and 2017 during which the Obama administration released annual numbers as well as the entire history of the stockpile size going back to 1945.

拒绝解密弹头储存和拆除数量的决定与2010年至2017年期间公布的此类数据相矛盾，在此期间，奥巴马政府公布了年度数据，以及追溯到1945年的整个储存规模历史。

 

The decision also contradicts the decision in 2018 to declassify the data for 2017, the first year of the Trump administration.

这一决定也与2018年解密特朗普政府成立第一年2017年度数据的决定相矛盾。

 

In 2019, however, the Trump administration suddenly, and without explanation, decided to withhold the stockpile data.

然而，在2019年，特朗普政府突然没有任何解释地决定保留库存数据。

 

The available data shows significant fluctuations in the size of the US stockpile over the years depending on how the various administrations increased or decreased the number of nuclear weapons. The graph below shows the size of the stockpile over the years and the in- and out-flux of warheads from the stockpile. As far as we can gauge, the stockpile has remained relatively stable for the past three years at around 3,800 warheads. And the number of warheads dismantled per year is probably currently in the order of 300-350.

现有数据显示，多年来，美国库存量的波动很大，这取决于各政府部门增加或减少核武器数量的方式。下图显示了这些年来的库存量以及从库存中弹头流入和流出数量。据我们估计，过去三年来，库存保持相对稳定，大约有3,800枚弹头。而且每年拆除的弹头数量目前可能在300-350枚左右。

 

The size of the US nuclear weapons stockpile has fluctuated considerably over the years but remained relatively stable during the Trump administration. Click on image to view full size.

多年来，美国核武器储备的规模波动很大，但在特朗普政府执政期间保持相对稳定。点击图片查看原图。

 

Implications and Recommendations

影响和建议

 

The decision by the Trump administration to deny declassification of the nuclear weapons stockpile size and dismantlement numbers contradict release of such data in the past for no apparent reason.

特朗普政府拒绝解密核武器储存规模和拆除数量的决定，在过去毫无明显理由地与公布此类数据相矛盾。

 

The increased secrecy of the US nuclear weapons arsenal comes at a time when the Trump administration has been criticizing China for “its secretive, nuclear crash buildup…” The administration’s criticism would carry a lot more weight if it didn’t hide its own stockpile behind a “great wall of secrecy.”

在特朗普政府一直批评中国“其秘密地，核事故的积累……”之际，美国核武器库的保密性提高了。如果政府不把自己的核武器储存藏在“大保密墙”后面，其批评就会更有分量。”

 

In addition to undercutting the US ability to push for greater transparency among other nuclear-armed states, the decision to classify warhead stockpile and dismantlement data also weakens the ability of the United States to demonstrate good faith on its efforts to continue to reduce its nuclear arsenal in the context of the upcoming review conference of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The decision enables conspiracists to spread false rumors that the United States is secretly increasing its nuclear arsenal.

除了削弱美国在其他核武器国家中推动提高透明度的能力外，对弹头储存和拆除数据进行分类的决定也削弱了美国在即将举行的《核不扩散条约》审议大会对其继续削减核武库的努力表现出诚意的能力。这一决定使阴谋家能够散布谣言，说美国正在秘密增加其核武库。

 

The incoming Biden administration should overturn the Trump administration’s excessive and counterproductive nuclear secrecy and restore transparency of the US nuclear warhead stockpile and dismantlement data.

即将上任的拜登政府应推翻特朗普政府过分和适得其反的核保密措施，并恢复美国核弹头库存和拆除数据的透明度。

 

Background Information:

背景资料：

 

FAS Nuclear Notebook: US Nuclear Forces 2020

Status of World Nuclear Forces

This publication was made possible by generous contributions from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the New Land Foundation, the Ploughshares Fund, and the Prospect Hill Foundation. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors.

FAS核笔记本：美国核力量2020

世界核力量状况

这本书的出版是由约翰·D·和凯瑟琳·T·麦克阿瑟基金会、新土地基金会、犁铧基金会和展望山基金会慷慨捐助而成的。所作的陈述和发表的意见完全由作者负责。

 

Categories: accountability, Arms Control, Disarmament, Government Secrecy, Nuclear Weapons, United States

类别：问责制、军备控制、裁军、政府保密、核武器、美国