Count-Down Begins For No-Brainer: Extend New START Treaty

无需多想的事倒计时开始:延长《新削减战略武器条约》条约

Date:2020-04-10 Source:FAS By:Globalmil Viewed:


Signing of New START treaty, Prague, April 8, 2010
2010年4月8日在布拉格签署《新削减战略武器条约》
 
Posted on Feb.05, 2020 in Arms Control, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, United States by Matt Korda and Hans M. Kristensen
发表于2020年2月5日,军备控制,核武器,俄罗斯,美国
作者:马特·科达(Matt Korda)和汉斯·克里斯滕森(Hans M. Kristensen)
 
One year from today, on February 5, 2021, the New START treaty will expire, unless the United States and Russia act to extend the last nuclear arms control agreement for an additional five years.
从今天起一年时间,到2021年2月5日,《新削减战略武器条约》(START)将失效,除非美国和俄罗斯采取行动将最新的核武器控制协议再延长五年。
 
No matter your political orientation, treaty extension is a no-brainer – for at least six primary reasons.
无论你的政治倾向如何,条约的延长都是理所当然的-至少有六个主要原因。
 
1. New START keeps nuclear arsenals in check. If the treaty expires, there will be no constraints on US or Russian strategic arsenals for the first time since 1972. It would remove caps on how many strategic nuclear missiles and bombers the two sides can own and how many warheads that are carried on them. This means that Russia could quickly upload about a thousand new warheads onto its deployed missile arsenal–without adding a single new missile. The United States could upload even more because it has more missiles and bombers than Russia (see table below). And both sides could begin to increase their arsenals, risking a new nuclear arms race.
1、新的核武器条约使核武库受到控制。如果该条约到期,自1972年以来,美国或俄罗斯的战略武库将不再受到任何限制。它将取消双方可以拥有多少枚战略核导弹和以及轰炸机携带多少枚弹头的上限。这意味着俄罗斯可以在不增加一枚新导弹的情况下,迅速将约一千枚新弹头装配到部署的导弹武库中。美国可以装配更多的东西,因为它拥有比俄罗斯更多的导弹和轰炸机(见下表)。 双方都可能开始增加军火库,冒着新的核军备竞赛的危险。
 

Both Russia and the United States have large warhead inventories that could be added to missiles and bombers if New START treaty expires.
如果《新削减战略武器条约》到期,俄罗斯和美国都有大量的弹头库存,可以将其添加到导弹和轰炸机中。
 
At a time when NATO-Russian relations are at their lowest since the end of the Cold War, when long-term predictability is more important than in the past three decades, allowing New START constraints to expire is obviously not in the US strategic interest or that of its allies. Very simply, New START is a good deal for both the United States and Russia; it cannot be allowed to expire without replacing it with something better.
在北约与俄罗斯的关系处于自冷战结束以来的最低点之时,长期可预测性比过去三十年更为重要,允许新的裁军条约限制失效显然不符合美国和其盟友的战略利益。 简而言之,《新削减战略武器条约》对美国和俄罗斯都是很好的交易。如果不使用更好的替代,它就不能过期。
 
2. New START force level is the basis for current nuclear infrastructure plans. Both the United States and Russia have structured their nuclear weapons and industry modernization plans on the assumption that the New START force level will continue, or at least not increase. If New START falls away, those assumptions and modernization plans will have to be revised, resulting in significant additional costs that neither Russia nor the United States can afford.
2、《新削减战略武器条约》力量水平是当前核基础计划的基准。美国和俄罗斯都以《新削减战略武器条约》力量继续或至少不会增加的假设为基准,制定了其核武器和工业现代化计划。如果新的裁军条约落空,这些假设和现代化计划将不得不修改,从而导致俄罗斯和美国都负担不起的大量额外费用。
 
3. New START offers transparency and predictability in an unstable world. Under the current treaty, the United States receives a notification every time a Russian missile is deployed, every time a missile or bomber moves between bases, and every time a new missile is produced. Without these notifications, the United States would have to spend more money and incur significant risks to get the exact same information through National Technical Means (i.e. satellites and other forms of site monitoring). Russia benefits in the same way.
3、《新削减战略武器条约》在不稳定的世界中提供了透明度和可预测性。根据现行条约,每次俄罗斯部署导弹,每次导弹或轰炸机在基地之间转移,每次制造新导弹,美国都会收到通知。如果没有这些通知,美国将不得不花费更多的钱,并招致巨大的风险,以通过国家技术手段(即卫星和其他形式的站点监视)获得完全相同的信息。俄罗斯以同样的方式受益。
 
 
New START has forced Russia and the United States to reduce deployed strategic nuclear forces.
《新削减战略武器条约》迫使俄罗斯和美国减少部署的战略核力量。
 
Why would we willingly give all that up – to get absolutely nothing in return (and actually pay a steep price for giving it up)?
为什么我们愿意放弃所有这些-绝对得不到任何回报(实际上为付出而付出了高昂的代价)?
 
4. New START has overwhelming bipartisan support––even among Trump voters. Not only is extension a foreign policy priority for Democrats, but polling data indicates that approximately 70% of Trump voters across the country are in favor of extending New START.
4、《新削减战略武器条约》赢得了两党的支持,甚至在特朗普选民中也是如此。延长条约不仅是民主党人的外交政策优先事项,而且民意调查数据显示,全国约70%的特朗普选民都赞成延长《新削减战略武器条约》。
 
Additionally, senior military leaders like the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the commander of Air Force Global Strike Command have expressed support for the treaty. Even one of Trump’s own political appointees, Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy David Trachtenberg, has testified that that “the transparency and verification requirements of the New START Treaty are a benefit” to the security of the United States.
此外,参谋长联席会议副主席和空军全球打击司令部司令等高级军事领导人也对该条约表示了支持。甚至连特朗普自己的政治任命之一,国防部负责政策的副部长戴维·特拉克滕伯格(David Trachtenberg)都作证说,“《新削减战略武器条约》的透明度和核查要求对美国的安全是有益的”。
 
5. We won’t get another chance. If New START expires next year, arms control between Russia and the United States as we know it is effectively over. Given the underlying East-West tensions and upcoming dramatic governance shifts in both the United States and Russia, there appears to be little interest or bandwidth available on either side in negotiating a new and improved treaty.
5、我们不会再有机会了。如果新的裁军条约明年到期,众所周知,俄罗斯与美国之间的军备控制实际上已经结束。鉴于潜在的东西方紧张局势以及美国和俄罗斯即将发生的重大治理转变,双方在谈判新的和经过改进的条约方面似乎没有什么兴趣或多余的精力。

Moreover, although future arms control must attempt to incorporate other nuclear-armed states, efforts to do so should not jeopardize New START.
此外,尽管未来的军备控制必须试图并入其他核武国家,但这样做的努力不应危害《新削减战略武器条约》。
 
At risk of stating the obvious, negotiating a new treaty is exponentially more difficult than extending an existing one.
冒着显而易见的风险,谈判新条约比延长现有条约困难得多。
 
6. It’s easy. Extension of New START doesn’t require Congressional legislation or Senate ratification. All it takes is a presidential stroke of a pen. And at the end of 2019, Putin offered to immediately extend the treaty “without any preconditions.” President Trump should immediately take him up on his offer; as of today, he has exactly one year left to do so. But don’t wait till the last minute! Get it done!
6、很简单。延长《新削减战略武器条约》不需要国会立法或参议院批准。它所要做的只是总统一根笔。到2019年底,普京提出“无任何先决条件”立即延长该条约。特朗普总统应立即接受他的提议; 到今天为止,他还剩下一年的时间。但是不要等到最后一分钟!完成它!

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