Estimated Nuclear Weapons Locations 2009

2009年世界核武器地点估计

Date:2013-10-26 Source:fas By:globalmil Viewed:

 

Some 23,300 nuclear weapons are stored at 111 locations around the world
约23,300件核武器储存在全球111处地点

By Hans M. Kristensen November 25th, 2009
作者:汉斯·克里斯滕森 2009年11月25日

The world’s approximately 23,300 nuclear weapons are stored at an estimated 111 locations in 14 countries, according to an overview produced by FAS and NRDC.

据估计世界上大约23,300件核武器储存在14国家111处地点,依照美国科学家联合会(FAS)和自然资源保护协会(NRDC)做出的总结。

Nearly half of the weapons are operationally deployed with delivery systems capable of launching on short notice.

几乎近一半的武器处在可操作状态部署在递送系统上能够随时发射。

The overview is published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and includes the July 2009 START memorandum of understanding data. A previous version was included in the annual report from the International Panel of Fissile Materials published last month.

总结发布在《原子科学家公报》并包括2009年7月《削减战略武器条约》(START)谅解备忘录数据。一个早先版本列入上个月国际裂变材料小组发布的年报。

 

Figure 2:
Saratov Nuclear Sites
图片2:萨拉托夫核地点

More than 1,000 nuclear weapons surround Saratov.
超过1,000件核武器包围萨拉托夫。

Russia has an estimated 48 permanent nuclear weapon storage sites, of which more than half are on bases for operational forces. There are approximately 19 storage sites, of which about half are national-level storage facilities.  In addition, a significant number of temporary storage sites occasionally store nuclear weapons in transit between facilities.

俄国估计有48处永久性核武器储藏地点,超过一半在基地用于操作部队。在那大约有19处储藏地点,大约一半是国家-级储藏设施。除此之外,可观数量临时储藏地点在设施之间运输的时候偶尔存放核武器。

This is a significant consolidation from the estimated 90 Russian sites ten years ago, and more than 500 sites before 1991.

这是在俄国十年以前估计的90处地点重大整合后的数目,而且在1991年以前超过500处地点。

Many of the Russian sites are in close proximity to each other and large populated areas.  One example is the Saratov area where the city is surrounded by a missile division, a strategic bomber base, and a national-level storage site with probably well over 1,000 nuclear warheads combined (Figure 2).

许多俄国地点在彼此附近和接近大型居住区。一个例子是萨拉托夫区域,城市被一个导弹师,一个战略轰炸机基地和一个超过1,000枚核弹头的国家-级储藏地点联合包围(图 2)

The United States stores its nuclear weapons at 21 locations in 13 states and five European countries.  This is a consolidation from the estimated 24 sites ten year ago, 50 at the end of the Cold War, and 164 in 1985 (see Figure 3).

美国在13个州的21处地点和五个欧洲国家储藏核武器。这是从十年前估计的24处地点整合后的数目,在冷战结束的时候50处,而在1985年164处(图 3)。

Figure 3:
B61 Nuclear Bombs in Storage
图片3:储藏的B61核炸弹

Approximately 50 B61 nuclear bombs inside an igloo at what might be Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. Seventy-five igloos at Nellis store “one of the largest stockpile in the free world,” according to the U.S. Air Force, one of four central storage sites in the United States.
大约50枚B61核炸弹在内华达州内利斯空军基地圆顶形建筑之内。在内利斯七十五处圆顶形建筑的储藏依照美国空军称“自由世界
最大的储藏之一”,是在美国四个中央储藏地点的其中之一。

Europe has about the same number of nuclear weapon storage locations as the Continental United States, with weapons scattered across seven countries. This includes seven sites in France and four in Britain. Five non-nuclear NATO countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey) still host U.S. nuclear weapons first deployed there during the Cold War.

欧洲有大约和美国大陆相同数量的核武器储藏地点,武器散布横跨七个国家。这包括在法国的七处地点和包括在英国的四处。五个北约组织非核国家(比利时,德国,意大利,荷兰土耳其)在冷战期间在那里首次部署之后仍然寄存美国核武器。

We estimate that China has 8-14 facilities associated with nuclear weapons, most likely closer to the lower number, near bases with units that operate nuclear missiles or aircraft.  None of the weapons are believed to be fully operational but stored separate from delivery vehicles at sites controlled by the Central Military Commission.

我们估计中国有8-14处设施和核武器关联,很有可能比较接近较低数目,在操作核导弹或飞机单位的基地附近。没有武器被相信处在完全操作状态,但和发射工具分开储藏由中央军事委员会控制。

Is There a Nuclear Weapons Storage Site on Hainan Island?
这是在海南岛上的一个核武器储藏地点吗?

Where does China store nuclear warheads for its ballistic missile submarines?  The naval base near Julin on Hainan Island has extensive underground facilities.  An alternative to the base itself could potentially be a facility elsewhere on the island, such as Foluo Air Base where construction of an underground facility began five years before the first SSBN arrived at Hainan. Or are the weapons stored on the mainland?  Click image to enlarge.
中国为它的弹道导弹潜水艇在哪里储存核弹头呢?在海南岛Julin附近的海军基地有广泛的地下设施。在海南岛别处一个供替代的
基地它本身可能是一处设施,像是Foluo空军基地在第一艘SSBN到达海南五年之前建造一处地下设施。或武器在大陆储存?

Israel probably has about four nuclear sites, whereas the nuclear storage facilities in India and Pakistan are – despite many rumors – largely undetermined.  All three countries are thought to store warheads separate from delivery vehicles.

以色列大概有四处核地点,然而在印度巴基斯坦核储藏设施-尽管许多传闻-主要未确定。所有三个国家被认为储存弹头和运载工具分开。

Despite two nuclear tests and many rumors, we are unaware of publicly available evidence that North Korea has operationalized its nuclear weapons capability.

尽管两次核试验和许多传闻,我们不知道公开可得有关朝鲜拥有它的可操作核武器能力的证据。

Warhead concentrations vary greatly from country to country. With 13,000 warheads at 48 sites, Russian stores an average of 270 warheads at each location. The U.S. concentration is much higher with an average of 450 warheads at each location. These are averages, however, and in reality the distribution is thought to be much more uneven with some sites only storing tens of warheads.

弹头集中程度国家与国家之间非常不同。13,000枚弹头在48处地点,俄国在每处地点平均储藏270枚弹头。美国集中程度更高在每处地点平均450枚弹头。然而,这些是平均,而且事实上的分布认为是非常不平均而且一些地点只储存数十枚弹头。

 

Finally, a word of caution is in order: estimates such as these obviously come with a great deal of uncertainty, as we don’t have access to classified intelligence estimates. Based on publicly available information and our own assumptions we have nonetheless produced a best estimate that we hope will assist the public debate. Comments and suggestions are encouraged so we can adjust the overview in the future.

最后,提出忠告是为了:像这样的估计显然伴随大量不确定性,由于我们不能通过保密情报估计。基于公开可得的数据和我们自己的假定我们虽然产生了一个最佳估计值,我们希望有助公众讨论。鼓励意见和提议,那么我们能调整将来的总结。

Estimated Global Nuclear Weapons Inventories 2009
2009年全球核武器估计清单

Country 国家

Weapons 武器件数

Storage Locations 储藏地点数目

Russia 俄罗斯

13,000 #1

48

United States 美国

9,400 #2

21 #3

France 法国

300

7

China 中国

240

8-14 #4

Britain 英国

180

4

Israel 以色列

80-100

4

Pakistan 巴基斯坦

70-90

4-8 #5

India 印度

60-80

4-8 #5

North Korea 北朝鲜

?

(1) #6

Total 合计

~23,360

111

#1 approximately 4,850 of the Russina warheads are operational or active.The status of the other 8,150 warheads is unclear with some in reserve and the balance retired and awaiting dismantlement.俄罗斯弹头中大约4,850枚处在操作或活跃状态。另外8,150枚弹头的状态不易了解,由于一些备用、均衡退役和等候拆除。

 

#2 approximately 5,200 of the U.S. warheads are in the military stockpile(about 2,700 deployed);4,200 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement.美国弹头中大约5,200枚是军事储藏(大约2,700枚部署);4,200枚退役弹头正在等候拆除。

 

#3 In 13 states and five European countries(Belgium,Germany,Italy,the Netherlands,and Turkey).13个州和五个欧洲国家中(比利时,德国,意大利,荷兰和土耳其)

 

#4 Probably close to lower number,including six regional sites,one central site,and two industry sites.Some storage for submarine and bomber weapons also seems plausible,although co-location might occur.或许接近较低数目,包括六个地区地点,一个中央地点和二个工业地点。一些储藏用于潜艇和轰炸机武器也似是真实的,但是共同地点可能存在。

 

#5 The range reflects uncertainty about the number and locations of Pakistan and India's nuclear facilities.有关巴基斯坦和印度的核设施数目和位置考虑不确定性。

 

#6 We're not aware of publicly available information that shows that North Korea has operationalized its nuclear weapons capability.我们不知道公开可得的信息来表明朝鲜已经具有它的可操作核武器能力。

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