中国空军未来隐身战机最新设想图

May.21 (China Military News cited from Reuters) — China is building an advanced combat jet that may rival within eight years Lockheed Martin Corp’s F-22 Raptor, the premier US fighter, a US intelligence official said.

5月21日（引用路透社的中国军事新闻）—一名美国情报官员称，中国正在研制先进的战斗机，可能会在八年以内匹敌美国洛克希德马丁公司F-22战机。

The date cited for the expected deployment is years ahead of previous Pentagon public forecasts and may be a sign that China’s rapid military build-up is topping many experts’ expectations.

时间比美国五角大楼先前预测的日期要早几年。这可能显示出，中国军队建设正快速发展，超出许多军事专家的预测。

“We’re anticipating China to have a fifth-generation fighter … operational right around 2018,” Wayne Ulman of the National Air and Space Intelligence Centre testified yesterday to a congressionally mandated group that studies national security implications of US-China economic ties.

美国国家航空和航天情报中心（National Air and Space Intelligence Center） 官员韦恩·厄尔曼本周四向美国国会指定的、专门研究中美经济关系对国家安全影响的小组发表讲话。他说：“我们预测中国拥有第五代战机…将在2018年左右操作。”

“Fifth-generation” fighters feature cutting-edge capabilities, including shapes, materials and propulsion systems designed to make them look as small as a swallow on enemy radar screens.

“第五代”战斗机以尖端能力为特色，包括形状、材料和推进系统设计去使它们在敌人雷达荧屏上显示像一只燕子一样的小。

Defence Secretary Robert Gates had said last year that China “is projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020″ and only a “handful” by 2025.

美国国防部长盖茨去年曾经说中国“预期在2020年前不会拥有第五代战机”并且在2025年前“少量”拥有。

He made the comments on July 16 to the Economic Club of Chicago while pushing Congress to cap F-22 production at 187 planes in an effort to save billions of dollars in the next decade.

他在劝说美国国会限制F-22战机的生产数量在187架，努力在未来十年内减少数十亿美元的财政支出期间，在去年7月16日胸有成竹对芝加哥经济学会（Economic Club of. Chicago）作上述表示。

Ulman is China “issues manager” at the centre that is the US military’s prime intelligence producer on foreign air and space forces, weapons and systems. He said China’s military was eyeing options for possible use of force against Taiwan, which Beijing deems a rogue province.

美国国家航空和航天情报中心专门收集有关外国空军和太空力量、武器和军事系统的情报，是美国军方在这些领域的主要提供机构。而厄尔曼是该情报中心中国事务负责人。他说，中国军方正在关注使用武力解决台湾问题的选项，一个被北京视为分裂的省。

The People’s Liberation Army, as part of its Taiwan planning, also is preparing to counter “expected US intervention in support of Taiwan,” he told the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

他告诉美中经济与安全评估委员会（US-China Economic and Security Review Commission），中国人民解放军，作为它台湾计划的部分，正在为“预期中的美军干涉台湾问题”做准备。

He said the PLA’s strategy included weakening US air power by striking air bases, aircraft carrier strike groups and support elements if the US stepped in.

他称解放军的战略是，一旦美军插手台湾事务，解放军将打击美军的空军基地、航母战斗群和支援机构，从而削弱美军空中力量。

Attacks against US “basing infrastructure” in the western Pacific would be carried out by China’s air force along with an artillery corps’ conventional cruise missile and ballistic missile forces, he said outlining what he described as a likely scenario.

打击美军位于西太平洋基础军事力量的任务将由中国空军连同使用常规巡航导弹和弹道导弹的炮兵部队共同完成。他称概略说明诸如此类是他描述为一个可能的情节。

He described China as a “hard target” for intelligence-gathering and said there were a lot of unknowns about its next fighter, a follow-on to nearly 500 4th generation fighters “that can be considered at a technical parity” with older US fighters.

他为收集情报把中国说成是一个“困难目标”并且称对新一代战机掌握的资料并不多。中国目前拥有将近500架第四代战机，与美国老式战斗机相比“这些战机能够在性能上类似”。

“It’s yet to be seen exactly how (the next generation) will compare one on one with say an F-22,” Ulman told the commission. “But it’ll certainly be in that ballpark.”

他告诉委员会：“中国新一代战机与美国F-22战机一对一较量的情况还有待观察，”“但肯定不会相差很远。”

Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon’s No 1 supplier by sales, is in the early stages of producing another fifth-generation fighter, the F-35. Developed with eight partner countries in three models with an eye to achieving economies of scale and export sales, it will not fly as fast or as high as the F-22.

作为美国五角大楼第一大军火提供商，洛克西德马丁公司正在研制另一种五代战斗机F-35。由八个伙伴国家参与发展三种型号着眼于实现规模经济和出口量，但其飞行速度和高度无法与F-22相比。

Gates has argued that the United States enjoys a lopsided advantage in fighters, warships and other big-ticket military hardware. Some US congressional decisions on arms programs amount to overkill, out of touch with “real-world” threats and today’s economic strains, he said in two speeches on the issue this month.

盖茨在这个月二场演讲中的议题称，认为美国在战斗机、军舰和其它大型军事武器方面拥有很大的优势。美国国会批准的一些武器研制项目耗资过大，性能也超过“现实-世界”威胁和目前经济承受能力。

“For example, should we really be up in arms over a temporary projected shortfall of about 100 Navy and Marine strike fighters relative to the number of carrier wings, when America’s military possesses more than 3,200 tactical combat aircraft of all kinds?” Gates said on May 8.

盖兹在5月8日说，“举例来说，有可能我们竭力反对同航空母舰空军联队总数比较短缺大约100架海军和海军陆战队攻击战斗机的一个临时计划，美国军队何时拥有所有类型超过3,200架战术战斗机？”

“Is it a dire threat that by 2020 the United States will have only 20 times more advanced stealth fighters than China?” he added at the Eisenhower presidential library in Abilene, Kansas.

他在堪萨斯州艾比利尼的艾森豪总统图书馆补充说，“美国在2020年新型战机拥有数量只是中国的20倍难道是一种可怕的威胁吗？”

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, discounted the gap between the timelines cited by Gates and Ulman. He declined to comment on whether China had made enough progress since last July to change intelligence on the next fighter’s debut.

五角大楼新闻秘书杰夫-莫雷尔对盖茨和厄尔曼在中国新型战机推出时间上的预测差异并不在意。他对中国从去年七月以后已经表现充足进步在改变对下一代战斗机初次亮相时间的情报上拒绝发表意见。

Richard Fisher, an expert on the Chinese military at the private International Assessment and Strategy Centre, said Gates’ decision to end F-22 production is proving to be “potentially very wrong.”

国际评估和战略中心中国军事研究专家理查德-费舍尔称，盖茨停产F-22战机的决定“可能是非常错误的”。

“We will need more F-22s if we are going to adequately defend our interests,” he said in an interview on Thursday at the hearing.

他星期四在听证会的一次面谈中说，“如果想充分保护美国利益，就需要更多的F-22战机。”

Bruce Lemkin, a US Air Force deputy undersecretary for ties to foreign air forces, told the commission he had visited Taiwan twice in his official capacity and that the capabilities of Taiwan’s aging F-16s, also built by Lockheed, were not “keeping up.”

美国空军部副次长兰金（Bruce Lemkin）称，他告诉委员会曾经以公职身份两次访问台湾，台湾所拥有的同样由洛克希德公司制造的F-16战机已经落后，并非“保养”上原因。

Whether to meet Taiwan’s request for advanced F-16 fighters or upgrade the old ones was still under review by the Obama administration, he said before Ulman spoke.

他在韦恩·厄尔曼讲话前说，奥巴马政府仍在审核是否满足台湾需求出售新型F-16战机或者更新旧机型。