The report, based on a workshop involving industry, experts and Pentagon officials, is in part designed to promote what participants consider to be a "North Star" vision for America as leading human expansion into space beyond Earth.

该报告基于一个涉及工业界、专家和五角大楼官员的研讨会，其部分目的是促进参与者认为美国的“北极星”（North Star）太空愿景，即引领人类向地球以外的太空扩张。

 

By   THERESA HITCHENS

on August 25, 2022

作者：特里萨·希钦斯

2022年8月25日

 

Visitors admire the spacesuits that Fei Junlong and Nie Haisheng, China’s “hero taikonauts” wore during their five days in space in October, the nation’s second foray into space on board the Shenzhou VI craft, at an exhibition in Beijing 05 December 2005. (Photo credit STR/AFP via Getty Images)

2005年12月5日，在北京的一次展览上，游客们欣赏中国“英雄宇航员”费俊龙和聂海胜在10月的五天太空旅行中所穿的宇航服，这是中国登上神舟六号飞船第二次进入太空。

 

WASHINGTON — China is now “on track” to outpace the United States as the leading space power by 2045, according to the latest version of the space industrial base workshop report spearheaded in part by the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit.

华盛顿-根据五角大楼国防创新部门率先发布的最新版本的《空间工业基地研讨会报告》，中国现在正“走上轨道”，到2045年超越美国成为领先的空间大国。

 

A reason for this pessimistic viewpoint is a collective “a lack of urgency” across the US government and industry, as well as a bureaucratic environment “that is constructively delaying U.S. commercial progress through regulatory burden,” states the report, “State of the Space Industrial Base: Winning the New Space Race for Sustainability, Prosperity and the Planet.”

这种悲观观点的一个原因是整个美国政府和行业的集体“缺乏紧迫性”，以及官僚环境“正通过监管负担建设性地拖延美国的商业进展”，该报告称，“航天工业基地状况：为可持续性、繁荣和星球赢得新太空竞赛”

 

“China could surpass the US in space superiority if we don’t increase our investment,” DIU Director Michael Brown said on Wednesday at an event sponsored by the Atlantic Council to release the 2022 report.

“如果我们不增加投资，中国可能在空间优势方面超过美国，”美国国防创新小组(DIU)主任迈克尔·布朗（Michael Brown）周三在大西洋理事会主办的发布2022年报告的活动上表示。

 

The report is the fourth in a series, stemming from an annual workshop that this year gathered more than 350 industry representatives and government officials, including from the Pentagon and the Intelligence Community. While the authors are active Defense Department officials, the report makes it clear it is not an official document; nor do the views expressed in the report represent official DoD or US government policy.

这份报告是一系列报告中的第四份，来自一个年度研讨会，今年有350多名行业代表和政府官员参加，其中包括五角大楼和情报界。虽然作者是积极的国防部官员，但报告明确表示，这不是一份官方文件；报告中表达的观点也不代表国防部或美国政府的官方政策。

 

The authors of the report are Steven “Bucky” Butow, DIU’s Space Portfolio director; Maj. Gen. John Olson, mobilization assistant to Space Force chief Gen. Jay Raymond; Col. Eric Felt, director of Space Architecture, Science and Technology in the Department of the Air Force Office of Space Acquisition and Integration; and Thomas Cooley, chief scientist at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Space Vehicles Directorate. It was edited by Peter Garretson, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council. All are known for their advocacy of a more aggressive US government approach to what they see as China’s “hegemonic” plans for its role in an expanded space economy of the future.

该报告的作者是DIU的空间组合总监史蒂文·布基·布托；约翰·奥尔森少将，空间部队总司令杰伊·雷蒙德将军的动员助理；埃里克·费尔特上校，空军空间获取和集成办公室空间建筑、科学和技术部主任；托马斯·库利，空军研究实验室（AFRL）空间飞行器理事会的首席科学家。它由美国外交政策委员会高级研究员彼得·加勒特森编辑。众所周知，他们都主张美国政府采取更具侵略性的做法，以应对他们眼中的中国在未来空间经济扩张中的“霸权”计划。

 

The report itself makes clear that the goal of the workshop and the report is to promote what participants consider to be a “North Star” vision for America as leading human expansion into space beyond Earth.

报告本身清楚地表明，研讨会和报告的目标是促进参与者认为美国的“北极星”愿景，即引领人类向地球以外的太空扩张。

 

“Participants support ‘Economic Development and Human Settlement’ as that enduring vision to retain U.S. economic leadership, preserve the Earth, and protect other national interests,” the report states. “A compelling, comprehensive, and clearly articulated North Star vision, with timelines to ensure the U.S. remains an undisputed space leader, must touch all instruments of national power — Economic/Industrial, Coalitional, Military, Informational, Technological — and be woven into similar terrestrial strategies promoting liberty and prosperity.”

报告称：“参与者支持‘经济发展和人类居住区’作为保持美国经济领导地位、保护地球和保护其他国家利益的持久愿景。” “一个引人注目的、全面的、清晰的北极星愿景，以及确保美国仍然是无可争议的太空领导者的时间表，必须触及所有国家权力工具——经济/工业、联盟、军事、信息、技术——并融入类似的促进自由和繁荣的陆地战略。”

 

Space, the report asserts, “is an economic domain that is resource and opportunity rich” but as yet lacks the infrastructure necessary to allow the domain to meet its full potential. The catch is that space’s economic opportunities come “with significant first mover advantage”

报告断言，太空“是一个资源和机会丰富的经济领域”，但仍缺乏使该领域充分发挥其潜力所需的基础设施。问题是太空的经济机会“具有显着的先发优势”。

 

The focus of this year’s workshop was on the speed at which the US space economy was evolving to include cutting-edge activities that eventually would lead to this vision of an American dominated solar system. The report explains:“The 2022 State of the Space Industrial Base workshop focused primarily on one question, ‘Are we making the progress we should be, and if not why not’? For those who believe we are making progress, the question that follows is, ‘Are we going fast enough?’ The consistent answer was ‘no,’ with the majority of participant respondents saying we were not moving with a sense of urgency. In response to ‘What’s the sense of urgency?,’ many experts including the Atlantic Council asserted that, if current trends continue, the U.S. may lose space superiority by 2032.”

今年研讨会的重点是美国空间经济发展的速度，以包括最终导致美国主导的太阳系愿景的尖端活动。报告解释说：“2022 年航天工业基地状况研讨会主要关注一个问题，‘我们是否取得了应有的进展，如果没有取得进展，为什么不呢？ 对于那些认为我们正在取得进展的人来说，接下来的问题是，“我们进展够快吗？”一致的答案是“不”，大多数参与者表示我们没有紧迫感。 在回应‘什么是紧迫感？’时，包括大西洋理事会在内的许多专家断言，如果目前的趋势继续下去，到 2032 年美国可能会失去太空优势。”

 

One telling indicator of China’s rapid space advancement is the finding by a 2022 report by RAND’s Project Air Force that China is overtaking the US in the number of military related patents, the workshop report notes.

研讨会报告指出，兰德公司的“空军计划”（Project Air Force）在2022年的一份报告中发现，中国在与军事相关的专利数量上正在超过美国，这是中国快速太空发展的一个有力指标。

 

The report recognizes that the US commercial space sector has seen “tremendous growth,” and that there has been considerable venture capital investment in space startups. However, workshop participants fretted that “supply chain challenges, inflation and depth of workforce issues threaten the economic viability of space domestically, as well as, the ability to maintain a strong national security space posture.”

该报告承认，美国商业航天部门已经出现了“巨大的增长”，并且对航天初创公司进行了大量风险投资。然而，研讨会参与者担心“供应链挑战、通货膨胀和劳动力问题的深度威胁着国内太空的经济可行性，以及保持强大的国家安全太空态势的能力。”

 

Industry also is being hampered, the report finds, by lack of clear and consistent investment by the US government, and issues with on-ramping commercial innovation, especially at DoD. This is despite the fact that commercial space capabilities “have forever changed the nature of conflict.”

报告还发现，由于美国政府缺乏明确和一致的投资，以及商业创新（尤其是在国防部）的问题，工业也受到了阻碍。尽管商业空间能力“永远改变了冲突的性质”

 

Indeed, the authors point to a number of policy and process obstacles to making those investments, across the US government but particularly within DoD.

事实上，作者指出了在美国政府尤其是国防部内部进行这些投资的一些政策和流程障碍。

 

“The agile engineering ecosystem that has become the hallmark of the modern space era is at risk due to some U.S. policy and procurement practices within the bureaucracy that are not aligned with, or work counter to, national space strategy,” the report states. “DoD requires a process to rapidly acquire and constitute commercially-sourced capabilities for U.S. and allied warfighters.”

报告指出：“由于美国官僚机构内部的一些政策和采购做法与国家太空战略不一致或与之背道而驰，已成为现代太空时代标志的敏捷工程生态系统面临风险。” “国防部需要一个流程来为美国和盟国作战人员快速获取和构建商业来源的能力。”

 

The report goes on to assess current US capabilities and make recommendations for speeding development in specific technological arenas considered by workshop participants are key to the future space economy: launch services, hybrid space communications, in-space transportation and logistics, next-generation power and propulsion (including space-based solar power), and remote sensing and traffic management.

该报告接着评估了美国目前的能力，并提出了加速发展的建议，研讨会参与者认为，这些技术领域对未来空间经济至关重要：发射服务、混合空间通信、空间运输和物流、下一代动力和推进（包括天基太阳能）、航空航天技术、航空航天技术、，以及遥感和交通管理。

 

It also reviews US government policies toward space systems development, processes for financing space innovation, the state of the space workforce, and STEM education.

它还回顾了美国政府对空间系统发展的政策、为空间创新融资的过程、空间劳动力的状况和STEM教育。

 

The authors sum up in their executive summary: “Strategic competition in space remains a paramount concern.  … Proactive measures are required to sustain our nation’s space leadership across all instruments of national power despite China’s attempt to accelerate closing its technology gap with the U.S.”

作者在他们的执行摘要中总结道：“太空战略竞争仍然是一个最重要的问题。 ……尽管中国试图加快缩小与美国的技术差距，但仍需要采取积极措施来维持我们国家在所有国家力量工具中的太空领导地位。”