07.20.24

TEXT BY HANS KRISTENSEN

2024年7月20日

汉斯·克里斯滕森的文本

 

[UPDATED VERSION] The Federation of American Scientists applauds the United States for declassifying the number of nuclear warheads in its military stockpile and the number of retired and dismantled warheads. The decision is consistent with America’s stated commitment to nuclear transparency, and FAS calls on all other nuclear states to follow this important precedent.

[更新版本]美国科学家联合会赞扬美国解密其军事储备中的核弹头数量以及退役和拆除的弹头数量。这一决定符合美国对核透明度的承诺，FAS呼吁所有其他核国家遵循这一重要先例。

 

The information published on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) web site today shows that the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile as of September 2023 included 3,748 nuclear warheads, only 40 warheads off FAS’ estimate of 3,708 warheads.

美国国家核安全局（NNSA）网站今天发布的信息显示，截至2023年9月，美国的核武器库存包括3748枚核弹头，仅比FAS估计的3708枚弹头少40枚。

 

The information also shows that the United States last year dismantled only 69 retired nuclear warheads, the lowest number since 1994.

信息还显示，美国去年只拆除了69枚退役核弹头，为1994年以来的最低数量。

 

FAS has previously requested that the United States release the size of the US nuclear arsenal for FY2021, FY2022, and FY2023, but those requests were denied. FAS believes the information was wrongly withheld and that today’s declassification decision vindicates our belief that stockpile disclosures do not negatively affect U.S. security but should be provided to the public.

FAS此前曾要求美国公布2021财年、2022财年和2023财年的美国核武库规模，但这些要求被拒绝。FAS认为，这些信息被错误地隐瞒了，今天的解密决定证明了我们的信念，即库存披露不会对美国安全产生负面影响，但应该向公众提供。

 

With today’s announcement, the Biden Administration has restored the nuclear stockpile transparency that was created by the Obama administration, halted by the Trump administration, revived by Biden administration in its first year, but then halted again for the past three years.

通过今天的宣布，拜登政府恢复了由奥巴马政府创建、特朗普政府停止、拜登政府在第一年恢复、但在过去三年再次停止的核武库透明度。

 

While applauding the U.S. disclosure, FAS also urged other nuclear-armed states to disclose their stockpile numbers and warheads dismantled. Excessive nuclear secrecy creates mistrust, fuels worst-case planning, and enables hardliners and misinformers to exaggerate nuclear threats.

FAS对美国的披露表示赞赏，同时敦促其他拥有核武器的国家披露其库存数量和拆除的弹头。过度的核保密会造成不信任，助长最坏情况的计划，并使强硬派和误导者夸大核威胁。

 

What The Nuclear Numbers Show

核数量显示了什么

 

The declassified stockpile numbers show that the United States maintained a total of 3,748 warheads in its military stockpile as of September 2023. The military stockpile includes both active and inactive warheads in the custody of the Department of Defense. The information also discloses weapons numbers for the previous two years, numbers that the U.S. government had previously declined to release.

解密的库存数量显示，截至2023年9月，美国的军事库存中共有3748枚弹头。军事储备包括国防部保管的现役和非现役弹头。该信息还披露了过去两年的武器数量，而美国政府此前拒绝公布这些数字。

 

Although there have minor fluctuations, the numbers show that the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile has remained relative stable for the past seven years. The fluctuations during that period do not reflect decision to increase or decrease the stockpile but are the result of warheads movements in and out of the stockpile as part of the warhead life-extension and maintenance work.

尽管有小幅波动，但数据显示，美国的核武器库存在过去七年中保持相对稳定。在此期间的波动并不反映增加或减少库存的决定，而是作为弹头寿命延长和维护工作的一部分，弹头进出库存的结果。

 

Although the warhead numbers today are much lower than during the Cold War and there have been reductions since 2000, the reduction since 2007 has been relatively modest. Although the New Start treaty has had some indirect effect on the stockpile size due to reduced requirement, the biggest reductions since 2007 have be caused by changes in presidential guidance, strategy, and modernization programs. The initial chart released by NNSA did not accurately show the 1,133-warhead drop during the period 2012-2023. NNSA later corrected the chart (see top of article). The chart below shows the number of warheads in the stockpile compared with the number of warheads deployed on strategic launchers over the years.

尽管今天的弹头数量远低于冷战时期，而且自2000年以来有所减少，但自2007年以来的减少幅度相对较小。尽管《新削减战略武器条约》因需求减少而对库存规模产生了一些间接影响，但自2007年以来最大的削减是由总统指导、战略和现代化计划的变化造成的。国家核安全局发布的初步图表没有准确显示2012年至2023年期间1133枚弹头的下落。国家核安全局后来更正了该图表（见文章顶部）。下图显示了多年来库存中的弹头数量与部署在战略发射器上的弹头数量的比较。

 

This graph shows the size of the U.S. nuclear stockpile over the years plus the portion of those warheads deployed on strategic launchers. The stockpile number for 2024 and the strategic launcher warheads are FAS estimates.

该图显示了多年来美国核武库的规模，以及部署在战略发射器上的弹头部分。2024年的库存数量和战略发射弹头是FAS的估计值。

 

The information also shows that the United States last year dismantled only 69 retired nuclear warheads. That is the lowest number of warheads dismantled in a year since 1994. The total number of retired nuclear warheads dismantled 1994-2023 is 12,088. Retired warheads awaiting dismantlement are not in the DOD stockpile but in the DOE stockpile.

信息还显示，美国去年只拆除了69枚退役核弹头。这是自1994年以来一年中拆除的弹头数量最低的一次。1994-2023年拆除的退役核弹头总数为12088枚。等待拆卸的退役弹头不在国防部库存中，而是在能源部库存中。

 

The information disclosed also reveals that there are currently another approximately 2,000 retired warheads in storage awaiting dismantlement. This number is higher than our most recent estimate (1,336) because of the surprisingly low number of warheads dismantled in recent years. Because dismantlement appears to be a lower priority, the number of retired weapons awaiting dismantlement today (~2,000) is only 500 weapons lower than the inventory was in 2015 (~2,500).

披露的信息还显示，目前还有大约2000枚退役弹头在储存中等待拆卸。这一数字高于我们最近的估计（1336），因为近年来拆除的弹头数量出乎意料地少。由于拆卸似乎是一个较低的优先级，今天等待拆卸的退役武器数量（约2000件）仅比2015年的库存（约2500件）低500件。

 

This research was carried out with generous contributions from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the New-Land Foundation, the Ploughshares Fund, the Prospect Hill Foundation, Longview Philanthropy, and individual donors.

这项研究是在纽约卡内基公司、新土地基金会、犁头基金会、展望山基金会、朗维尤慈善基金会和个人捐助者的慷慨捐助下进行的。