19 JULY 2021

by Jon Grevatt

2021 年 7 月 19 日

乔恩·格雷瓦特

 

Newly compiled Janes data shows China's defence exports declined mildly in 2020, interrupting a period of solid growth since 2016.

最新整理的简氏数据显示，中国国防出口在 2020 年温和下降，中断了自 2016 年以来的稳健增长期。

 

According to the data, China's international military sales in 2020 were equal to USD2.65 billion, a 4% decline on the figure in 2019.

数据显示，2020年中国国际军售额达26.5亿美元，较2019年下降4%。

 

According to Janes data, China's defence exports climbed gradually over the past decade. However, Beijing faces several challenges in maintaining growth over the coming few years. (Janes Markets Forecast)

根据简氏的数据，过去十年中国国防出口逐步攀升。 然而，北京在未来几年保持增长方面面临一些挑战。（简氏市场预测）

 

The decrease can almost certainly be attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic and resulting challenges related to marketing, production, supply chains, and logistics.

这种减少几乎可以肯定是由于新冠病毒（ Covid-19） 疫情以及由此带来的与营销、生产、供应链和物流相关的挑战。

 

The value of China's defence exports between 2016 and 2019 increased on average by 11% per year, growing from USD2.34 billion to USD2.76 billion.

2016-2019年中国国防出口额年均增长11%，从23.4亿美元增长到27.6亿美元。

 

Looking further back, larger increases were evident. According to Janes data, China's exports in 2012 were valued at USD1.35 billion and then grew by 80% to USD2.43 billion in 2014 before two years of declines and a subsequent resumption of growth.

再往后看，明显的增长幅度更大。 简氏数据显示，2012年中国出口额为13.5亿美元，2014年增长80%至24.3亿美元，之后连续两年下滑并恢复增长。

 

Janes data suggests China's exports will tail off in the early 2020s without new orders.

简氏的数据显示，如果没有新订单，中国的出口将在 2020年初放缓。

 

In terms of capability segments, the data suggests that the most valuable capability segments for China in the past five years have been naval ships (with a combined value of USD4.45 billion), military ground vehicles (USD3 billion), radars (USD1.50 billion), and missiles (USD950 million).

在能力细分方面，数据显示，过去五年中国最有价值的能力细分是海军舰艇（总值 44.5 亿美元）、军用地面车辆（30 亿美元）、雷达（15 亿美元）和导弹（9.5 亿美元）。

 

Naval ships and radars have been the quickest-growing segments, with expansion in both recorded in the past five years at about 140%. The value of unmanned aerial vehicles and sonars has more than doubled since 2016, although from a low base.

海军舰艇和雷达是增长最快的领域，在过去五年中两者的增长都达到了约 140%。 自 2016 年以来，无人机和声纳的价值翻了一番多，尽管基数较低。