2 Sep, 2024

Analysis Defense and Security Industry

2024年9月2日

国防安全行业分析

 

The MiG-41, also known as the PAK DP, is Russia's sixth-generation stealth interceptor currently under development to replace the aging MiG-31. Developed by Mikoyan, the MiG-41 aims to achieve speeds of up to Mach 4, positioning it as one of the fastest aircraft ever designed. This cutting-edge design emphasizes stealth, utilizing advanced materials and technologies to reduce radar visibility and enhance its undetectability.

米格-41，也被称为PAK DP，是俄罗斯目前正在开发的第六代隐形截击战斗机，以取代老化的米格-31。由米高扬开发的米格-41旨在实现高达4马赫的速度，使其成为有史以来设计最快的飞机之一。这种尖端的设计强调隐形，利用先进的材料和技术来降低雷达的可见度，增强其不可探测性。

 

Mig-41 model 1:1  (Picture source: Rostec)

米格-41型号1:1（图片来源：Rostec）

 

Equipped with a range of advanced systems, the MiG-41 is expected to intercept hypersonic missiles, employ anti-missile lasers, and potentially operate in near-space environments. These capabilities hint at its significant role in missile defense and space operations. Future iterations of the aircraft could even be unmanned, reflecting Russia's commitment to pioneering autonomous combat systems.

米格-41配备了一系列先进系统，预计将拦截高超音速导弹，使用反导激光器，并可能在近太空环境中运行。这些能力暗示了它在导弹防御和太空作战中的重要作用。该飞机的未来迭代甚至可能是无人驾驶的，这反映了俄罗斯对开创自主作战系统的承诺。

 

While the first prototype is expected in 2025, the MiG-41 is projected to enter service by the end of the decade. Combining extreme speed, advanced stealth, and versatile combat capabilities, the MiG-41 is poised to become an essential element of Russia's future air defense strategy.

虽然第一架原型机预计在2025年，但米格-41预计将在本十年末投入使用。米格-41结合了极高的速度、先进的隐形技术和多功能的作战能力，有望成为俄罗斯未来防空战略的重要组成部分。

 

Replacing the Iconic MiG-31K

替换标志性的米格-31K

 

The Russian sixth-generation Mikoyan MiG-41 fighter is intended to replace the Mikoyan MiG-31, but the technology currently appears somewhat too ambitious. The aircraft will not only operate in the upper atmosphere but also head toward lower space. It draws inspiration from the MiG-31M air dominance fighter, which is already well-established operationally.

俄罗斯第六代米高扬米格-41战斗机旨在取代米高扬米格-31，但目前的技术似乎有点过于雄心勃勃。这架飞机不仅将在高层大气中运行，还将飞向较低的太空。它的灵感来自米格-31M空中优势战斗机，该战斗机已经在作战上得到了很好的应用。

 

The MiG-31 "Foxhound" had a top speed of Mach 2.83 and was equipped with a large arsenal of weapons, including six long-range R-37 missiles. The MiG-41 will embody all the advantages of the MiG-31 interceptor. The MiG-41 is expected to be a more powerful weapons platform, capable of carrying air-launched missiles like the Kinzhal and their modernized versions, with weapons likely to be carried internally. The Russians claim it will introduce features yet unknown in the aviation world. It is time to understand the characteristics and development status of this next addition to Russia's arsenal.

米格-31“猎狐犬”的最高速度为2.83马赫，配备了大量武器，包括六枚远程R-37导弹。米格-41将体现米格-31拦截机的所有优势。米格-41预计将是一个更强大的武器平台，能够携带像金扎尔及其现代化版本这样的空射导弹，武器可能会在内部携带。俄罗斯人声称，它将引入航空界尚未知的功能。现在是时候了解俄罗斯下一个武器库的特点和发展状况了。

 

MIG-41 development view ( Picture Source: Rostec)

米格-41开发视图（图片来源：Rostec）

 

Development Status of the MiG-41

米格-41的发展现状

 

The MiG-41 PAK DP (Prospective Air Complex for Long-Range Interception) is Russia's ongoing development program aimed at creating a stealth supersonic interceptor and heavy fighter jet to replace the Mikoyan MiG-31 in the Russian Aerospace Forces by the mid-2030s. The actual designation of the platform will evolve when it enters service, integrating sixth-generation technologies and design. The PAK DP's design was reportedly finalized around the end of 2019. Ilya Tarasenko, the general director of MiG, and the head of Sukhoi, stated in a July 2020 interview that the PAK DP would be created as an advancement of the MiG-31 design.

米格-41 PAK DP（远程拦截前瞻性空中综合体）是俄罗斯正在进行的开发计划，旨在到21世纪30年代中期制造一种隐形超音速拦截器和重型战斗机，以取代俄罗斯航空航天部队的米高扬米格-31。该平台的实际名称将在投入使用时演变，整合第六代技术和设计。据报道，PAK DP的设计于2019年底左右完成。米格公司总经理兼苏霍伊公司负责人塔拉申科(Ilya Tarasenko)在2020年7月的一次采访中表示，PAK DP将作为米格-31设计的进步而创建。

 

Tarasenko also stated that it would be a new platform design capable of reaching Mach 4 and beyond, equipped with an anti-missile laser, and able to operate at very high altitudes and even in near space, flying at altitudes between the stratosphere (45 km) and the tropopause (12 km). The aircraft is also expected to borrow concepts and technologies from the MiG-31M, with an advanced Zaslon-M radar. It may use a variant of the Izdeliye 30 engines currently under development for the Su-57. The AMNTC Soyuz has disclosed information about the R-579 300 engine, already developed and a potential equivalent for the Su-57, among others.

塔拉申科还表示，这将是一种新的平台设计，能够达到4马赫及以上，配备反导激光器，能够在非常高的高度甚至在近太空运行，在平流层（45公里）和对流层顶（12公里）之间的高度飞行。预计该飞机还将借鉴米格-31M的概念和技术，配备先进的扎斯隆-M雷达。它可能使用目前正在为苏-57开发的Izdeliye 30发动机的改型。AMNTC联盟号已经披露了已经开发的R-579 300发动机的信息，以及苏-57的潜在等效发动机等信息。

 

The main challenge for the MiG-41 appears to be the continued development of the pulse detonation engine that will power the aircraft, particularly managing engine wear given the exceptionally dynamic load it will need to withstand. The PAK DP will utilize stealth technology. Russia is developing an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) cannon, which could revolutionize air combat. This innovative "energy cannon" could expand the range of achievable targets.

米格-41的主要挑战似乎是继续开发为飞机提供动力的脉冲爆震发动机，特别是考虑到它需要承受的异常动态负载，控制发动机磨损。PAK DP将采用隐形技术。俄罗斯正在开发一种电磁脉冲（EMP）加农炮，这可能会彻底改变空战。这种创新的“能量炮”可以扩大可实现目标的范围。

 

Russia plans to equip the MiG-41 with an electromagnetic cannon by 2025. A less powerful version of the electromagnetic cannon could be an effective deterrent against drones. The MiG-41 could also be equipped with R-37M missiles. It could later be transformed into an unmanned version. In January 2021, Rostec Corporation, the owner of Mikoyan, announced that the PAK DP had entered the development phase. The fact that the first flight is scheduled for 2025 indicates that a lot of work has already been done (or should have been done). The design should have been finalized, and metal cutting should have been underway for some time. The aircraft's propulsion and initial engine tests should be completed. If the timelines are realistic, taxiing tests should begin in 2024.

俄罗斯计划到2025年为米格-41配备电磁炮。一种威力较小的电磁炮可能是对无人机的有效威慑。米格-41还可以配备R-37M导弹。它后来可能会被改造成无人驾驶版本。2021年1月，米高杨公司的所有者俄罗斯国家技术集团（Rostec）宣布PAK DP已进入开发阶段。首飞计划于2025年进行，这一事实表明，许多工作已经完成（或应该完成）。设计应该已经完成，金属切割应该已经进行了一段时间。应完成飞机的推进和初始发动机测试。如果时间表是现实的，滑行测试应该在2024年开始。

 

It is difficult to predict the current state of Russian aircraft due to the secrecy surrounding them. If the MiG-41 successfully makes its inaugural flight by 2025, it should be fully operational by 2030. Originally, the MiG-41's introduction into service was announced for 2028, which now seems not only unfeasible but particularly unrealistic.

由于俄罗斯飞机的保密性，很难预测其目前的状态。如果米格-41在2025年前成功首飞，它应该在2030年前全面投入使用。最初，米格-41的服役日期是2028年，现在看来不仅不可行，而且特别不切实际。

 

Expected view of Mig-41 on take off, with two additionnal Air to Air missiles ( Picture source: X.com) 

米格-41起飞时的预期视图，另外还有两枚空对空导弹（图片来源：X.com）

 

A Different Operational Concept

不同的作战概念

 

As an interceptor, its primary mission would be to counter future reconnaissance aircraft currently being developed by the United States and China. According to some Russian media, the PAK DP was intended to become a hypersonic missile interceptor by carrying a multifunctional long-range interceptor missile system (MPKR DP) that would distribute multiple sub-missiles to increase the chances of intercepting hypersonic weapons.

作为一种拦截器，其主要任务是对抗美国和中国目前正在开发的未来侦察机。据一些俄罗斯媒体报道，PAK DP旨在通过携带多功能远程拦截导弹系统（MPKR DP）成为高超音速导弹拦截器，该系统将分配多个子导弹，以增加拦截高超音速武器的机会。

 

The distributor could also contain surface strike weapons. The PAK DP is also intended to carry anti-satellite lasers or missiles.

拦截器还可能包含水面打击武器。PAK DP还打算携带反卫星激光器或导弹。

 

Design and Program Management Challenges

设计和项目管理挑战

 

Many Western aviation analysts believe that even though details remain vague, the Russians seem to be proposing technological concepts that do not yet exist. The most advanced concept currently is the US Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. China is still talking about fifth-generation fighters. Both the United States and China have allocated far more significant funds to their future programs. Russia is still struggling to complete the development and secure a decent number of Su-57 "Felon" aircraft.

许多西方航空分析人士认为，尽管细节仍然模糊不清，但俄罗斯人似乎正在提出尚不存在的技术概念。目前最先进的概念是美国空军的下一代空中优势（NGAD）战斗机。中国仍在谈论第五代战斗机。美国和中国都为未来的项目分配了更多的资金。俄罗斯仍在努力完成开发，并获得数量可观的苏-57“费隆”飞机。

 

The Su-75 "Checkmate" is still in its early stages. Both programs are seeking foreign partners to increase the number of their aircraft, raise funds, and amortize costs. It remains to be seen whether Russia is engaging in information warfare with the MiG-41 or if it genuinely has something up its sleeve. Russia remains engaged in Ukraine and must contend with the economic power of the West, which does not allow it to have sufficient funds. The Russian military-industrial base is also highly stressed. Today, the question arises whether the MiG-41 will receive the desired support, unlike the Su-75, which faces a shortage of buyers.

苏-75“绝杀（Checkmate）”仍处于早期阶段。这两个项目都在寻求外国合作伙伴，以增加飞机数量、筹集资金和摊销成本。俄罗斯是否正在与米格-41进行信息战，或者它是否真的有什么秘密，还有待观察。俄罗斯仍在参与乌克兰事务，必须与西方的经济实力作斗争，因为西方不允许俄罗斯拥有足够的资金。俄罗斯的军事工业基础也受到高度重视。如今，问题在于米格-41是否会得到所需的支持，而苏-75则面临买家短缺的问题。

 

At speeds close to hypersonic, the heat generated by air friction allows sufficient stealth to be maintained without deteriorating the coating, which also presents a technological challenge. The heat generated by the exhaust could also increase its radar signature. The maintenance and repair of stealth coatings are very costly, and even the United States finds it challenging. Designing a canopy for hypersonic and stealth flight would also be a challenge.

在接近高超音速的速度下，空气摩擦产生的热量可以在不损坏涂层的情况下保持足够的隐身性，这也带来了技术挑战。废气产生的热量也可能增加其雷达特征。隐形涂层的维护和维修成本非常高，甚至美国也觉得这很有挑战性。为高超音速和隐形飞行设计一个座舱盖也将是一个挑战。

 

Achieving high speeds usually involves compromising maneuverability. However, this is not an issue for this role. The use of a pulse detonation engine in the MiG-41 represents a significant technological challenge.

实现高速通常需要牺牲机动性。然而，这对这个角色来说不是问题。在米格-41中使用脉冲爆震发动机是一项重大的技术挑战。

 

While promising immense power, this field is notoriously complex. Even proper development of the scramjet will not be simple. Such high speed also means very high fuel consumption, limiting range and endurance.

虽然有巨大的潜力，但这个领域是出了名的复杂。即使是超燃冲压发动机的适当开发也不会简单。如此高的速度也意味着非常高的油耗，限制了续航里程和续航能力。

 

To increase range, more fuel would need to be carried, implying an increase in size and weight. Otherwise, in-flight refueling would be necessary for most missions. The ability to fire at high Mach numbers would require specially designed weapons.

为了增加航程，需要携带更多的燃料，这意味着尺寸和重量都会增加。否则，大多数任务都需要空中加油。以高马赫数射击的能力需要专门设计的武器。

 

Expected view of MIG-41 whith two seats ( Picture source: Dzen.ru)

米格-41的两个座位的预期视图（图片来源：Dzen.ru）

 

Conclusion

结论

 

On paper, the MiG-41 seems to be the miracle weapon, the aircraft that will dominate space and the atmosphere, but in reality, the ambitions seem particularly high given the low funding conditions for its development. Furthermore, it is quite uncertain whether such technologies are available in Russia in terms of costs and technological advancement.

从纸面上看，米格-41似乎是一种神奇的武器，一种将主宰太空和大气层的飞机，但实际上，鉴于其开发的资金条件较低，其野心似乎特别高。此外，从成本和技术进步的角度来看，俄罗斯是否有此类技术尚不确定。

 

However, there is no doubt that this development will be delayed due to the focus on Su-57 production, which is not only more realistic but also more relevant in current conflicts. Indeed, a highly mobile aircraft with enhanced stealth has a better chance today than the current fleet. Therefore, the international conflicts that Russia is currently involved in make these high ambitions less relevant and delay the development of the MiG-41.

然而，毫无疑问，由于对苏-57生产的关注，这一发展将被推迟，这不仅更现实，而且在当前的冲突中更具相关性。事实上，如今，一架具有增强隐形能力的高机动性飞机比目前的机队有更好的机会。因此，俄罗斯目前参与的国际冲突使这些雄心壮志变得不那么重要，并推迟了米格-41的发展。

 

It is likely that the MiG-41, which will be tested in 2025, will still be in the development phase, with the onboard weaponry being developed in parallel and not directly on the aircraft. Several evolutions will therefore be expected depending on this development.

将于2025年进行测试的米格-41很可能仍处于开发阶段，机载武器将并行开发，而不是直接在飞机上开发。因此，根据这一发展，预计会有几次演变。